What is wrong in the DB concurrency adoption forecast
The full article was originally published by Stefano Della Valle on Medium. Read the full article here.
Human vs machine economy
I really enjoy the “money flower” on page 4, which immediately makes visually understandable the great variety of contexts in which we use currency.
And of course it is impressive to note the overlapping of the Internet adoption curve with the number of crypto-currency wallets.
Where’s the mistake?
The basic error that I identified in this study is the tendency to consider the adoption of Internet, measured in millions of users, comparable with the adoption of cryptos, measured in number of wallets.
In my opinion these two quantities are not comparable, for a simple reason: Internet is a network that supports multiple applications, wallets are a single application.
I superimposed on the DB chart the logos of the main platforms that have actually contributed to the adoption of Internet and the consequent development of the network, trying to maintain a consistent time sequence with the represented trend. The interval represented is from 1995 to 2010.
I think the point is easy to understand: the global development of Internet has been supported by new applications and new tools, that have produced significant benefits in many commercial and industrial sectors.
On the contrary, the DB study suggests that the progressive adoption of crypto-currencies is self-supported, or justified by reasons inherent in the wallet application.
Everyone does know that currently the possibility to use crypto-currency wallets to make real purchases is very limited. It can even be argued that it is not even an urgently felt necessity because of price volatility, which in turn is derived from the speculative nature of the main crypto-currencies.
For this reason, DB’s report claims that there is a large demand for stable coins, the availability of which could actually accelerate the spread of wallets, and it appears to be correct.
I therefore agree that if reliable stable coins will not be made available by the national monetary authorities, they will certainly be offered by economic operators of similar global reputation, such as Facebook or Amazon.
However, it seems clear to me that the demand for stable coins is not significant to measure real adoption. As an example, Amazon could easily create its own currency with a stable exchange rate against USD, that would be easily widely adopted without the need for it to be actually distributed, peer-to-peer and based on a permissionless network.
Real crypto applications
So, what is the adoption path for crypto coins that we can actually predict?